Why is the future of television bleaker than it was just 3 years ago?

In a constantly changing world, the television landscape is evolving at dizzying speed. In just three years, the future of television has become murky, suggesting major challenges and upheavals. What are the reasons for this worrying trend? Let’s analyze together the reasons for this growing shadow hanging over the future of television.

Jean Dupont, editor of articles specializing in the media, expertly analyzes audiovisual trends. Its objective is to raise awareness among its audience of current challenges in television, while adopting a critical and informative style.

The evils of linear: the agony of traditional television

Linear television, once at the heart of mass entertainment, is in free fall. Streaming services monopolize the best content, thus accelerating the cable cutting and drawing viewers away from traditional broadcasters. The financial forecasts of yesteryear still relied on a decent survival of linear television, but the reality is quite different. For example, in 2021, MoffettNathanson analysts predicted that by 2024, linear TV would account for $78 billion of the $149 billion total consumer spending on video. We are far from the mark today.

Insufficient profit margins for streaming

Ironically, although the streaming services massively attract consumers, their profitability remains problematic. Companies like Peacock, for example, are seeing their subscribers drop and their profit margins remain thin compared to classic television. This difficult financial situation was far from the expectations of media companies and financial analysts.

Incorrect economic projections

MoffettNathanson analysts had to revise their forecasts and admit that they had overestimated annual growth. The industry is far from the expected progression, and worse still, it is heading towards a reduction of video-related spending by 2028. In 2013, linear television represented 76% of the video entertainment market. By 2028, this figure could fall to just 50%, a clear sign of decline.

Changes in consumption habits

Part of this decline can be attributed to changes in consumer spending habits. Americans. Video spending, once growing year after year, is now being supplanted by other types of recreational spending. Consumers are spending more money on physical leisure such as sports, theme parks, camping, and other tangible experiences, often encouraged by technological advances.

The effects of strikes and other external shocks

The recent strikes of screenwriters and actors have also weighed heavily on the television industry. Despite an initial surge in production after these strikes, the number of series in production fell significantly, illustrating the fragility of the sector. Data from ProdPro shows a 22% decline in the number of series in production in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023.

The rise of free streaming services

An encouraging aspect was the increase in the share of free streaming services and FAST services (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV). These services have more than doubled their total viewing time, from 7% in 2021 to 15% in 2024. However, this success does not always benefit big players like Netflix, but rather user-generated content platforms like YouTube and TikTok.

In conclusion, the many challenges facing the television industry, from technological changes to strikes to unrealized financial expectations, paint a bleak future for a medium once omnipresent in our daily lives.